Japan’s Quiet Rearmament: A Shift in Post-War Pacifism?

By International Affairs Correspondent

For nearly eight decades, Japan stood as a symbol of post-war pacifism—a nation constitutionally committed to peace, with Article 9 of its post-World War II constitution famously renouncing war as a sovereign right. Yet, behind the subtle veil of bureaucracy and nuanced policymaking, Japan is now undergoing a quiet but profound transformation in its defense policy. In a world marked by rising regional tensions, China’s assertiveness, North Korea’s unpredictability, and the war in Ukraine, Tokyo appears to be rewriting its role—not just in Asia, but on the global stage.

The Evolution of a Peaceful Constitution

Japan’s pacifist constitution, written under the supervision of the United States during its post-war occupation, has long restrained its military capability. The Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF), technically not an army, were created as a limited response force, permitted only to defend Japanese territory in the event of an attack.

But from the 1990s onward, the pacifist identity began to slowly erode. Participation in peacekeeping operations, enhanced U.S.-Japan defense cooperation, and the reinterpretation of Article 9 in 2014 to allow for collective self-defense all signaled incremental steps away from strict pacifism.

The $320 Billion Defense Plan

In December 2022, Japan made headlines by unveiling its largest military build-up since World War II. The $320 billion five-year defense plan aims to bolster missile capabilities, cybersecurity, space surveillance, and overall readiness.

Crucially, it includes plans for Japan to acquire “counterstrike capabilities”—the ability to hit enemy bases preemptively if an imminent attack is detected. This is a landmark departure from Japan’s traditionally reactive posture. It will also dramatically increase Japan’s defense spending to 2% of GDP by 2027, aligning it with NATO standards.

This pivot, though politically sensitive, has found surprising public support. According to a Nikkei poll, nearly 60% of Japanese citizens now support stronger defense policies, reflecting growing anxiety over the regional security environment.

China and the Taiwan Flashpoint

One of the most pressing drivers behind Japan’s rearmament is the changing dynamics in the Taiwan Strait. China’s military activities near Taiwan—and increasingly close to Japan’s southwestern islands—have heightened alarm in Tokyo.

The Japanese government has declared that “peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait is indispensable,” an unusually strong statement for a nation that once kept a low diplomatic profile in regional disputes. Should a conflict erupt over Taiwan, Japan would be deeply affected due to its proximity and its alliance with the United States.

In 2023, Japan observed a record number of Chinese military incursions into its air defense identification zone (ADIZ), while maritime standoffs near the disputed Senkaku Islands have become more frequent.

North Korea and Hypersonic Threats

North Korea, too, has played a role in shifting Japan’s strategic thinking. Pyongyang’s missile tests, some of which have flown over Japanese territory, are a stark reminder that Japan remains within the range of unpredictable actors.

In response, Japan is accelerating development of its own missile defense shield and is reportedly in talks with Western partners about acquiring hypersonic interceptor technologies.

U.S.-Japan Alliance: A New Era

The U.S.-Japan alliance, long described as “the cornerstone of peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific,” is now entering a new phase. Washington has actively encouraged Tokyo to take on a larger security role in the region.

The shift is not merely symbolic. In recent years, the two allies have conducted joint military exercises of unprecedented scale. Japan is also collaborating with the U.K. and Italy to develop next-generation fighter jets—a first for Japanese defense industry cooperation.

This deeper integration is not just about bolstering deterrence—it’s about preparing for scenarios where Japan may need to act more autonomously in the face of aggression.

Domestic Debate and Constitutional Dilemma

Yet, the question remains: can Japan truly become a “normal” military power without revising Article 9?

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has so far opted for reinterpretation over amendment. Amending the constitution requires a two-thirds majority in both houses of parliament and a national referendum—an uncertain and politically risky endeavor. For now, rearmament is proceeding under legal grey zones and executive reinterpretations, carefully balanced to avoid public backlash.

Civil society groups and opposition parties warn that these moves erode Japan’s pacifist values and risk entangling the nation in foreign conflicts, particularly those involving the U.S.

A Return to Militarism?

Despite the growing military budget and policy shifts, Japan is far from returning to pre-1945 militarism. There is no draft, no aggressive rhetoric, and no imperial ambitions. Japan’s defense buildup remains fundamentally defensive in nature, though with an expanded scope.

What we are witnessing is not a revival of empire, but rather a recalibration—a Japan awakening to the geopolitical realities of the 21st century and redefining what peace means in a more dangerous world.

Conclusion: The Balance of Power in East Asia

Japan’s quiet rearmament may be subtle, but it is significant. In a region where power dynamics are shifting rapidly, Tokyo’s transformation carries profound implications for the future of the Indo-Pacific.

Whether this will deter aggression or provoke new tensions remains to be seen. But one thing is certain: Japan’s era of self-imposed pacifism is coming to an end—not with a bang, but with a deliberate, calculated step into a new strategic reality.